The Art of Predicting Future Mutual Fund Success

Investment funds offer investors a valuable option in growing and managing their wealth, especially in the area of retirement planning. There are disadvantages as well, most apparent in the obvious difficulty that arises in attempting to predict the future success of such funds. According to financial expert Robert Rosenkranz, caution is the best course for amateurs and experts alike when seeking to prognosticate fund success.

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, or SEC, strictly governs the language used when discussing mutual funds. Touting past gains as a measure of future performance is simply not allowed under current rules. Random sampling proves why this is true: statistically speaking, it is possible for random choice to correctly pick successful stocks in a small number of cases, even for winning streaks lasting years at a time. This would be a false positive, however; it is a lucky break rather than actual skill in predicting the success of future trends.

The savvy investor must be able to distinguish between fund managers who have such lucky breaks and those with actual experience predicting success that is grounded in actual skill. Everyone is capable of having a good year based simply on blind luck. Access to the financial records of a manager will have to be the determining factor in deciding whether he or she is simply having a good year. Generally speaking, a manager who is consistently right about small stocks with a range of themes winning over time is exhibiting actual skill rather than blind luck. Success with a two-pronged approach including something like small cap stocks and technology is another good indicator, although these can also have one or two good years based on blind luck alone.

Size is another good indicator. A manager who could move the market in a significant way single-handedly in the past given current size versus one whose outcome would be illiquid is another indicator of caution. The psychology of the market is another factor. Junk bonds can sometimes offer a very high rate of return if the market’s psychology plays in their favor, but the risk is defaulting. Strong corporations rarely default, and because of this, offer a far lower rate of return. Diversifying a portfolio will act as a bulwark against the volatility of such junk bonds in the event they default.

When extended periods of good fortune leave the bond market looking stable, the default caused by a credit or economic collapse can result in companies unable to manage their debts. Looking at this track record can actually cause trouble for the prognosticating investor, as it is not a clear indication of a person’s skill in predicting the market and such events can actually be quite profitable for investors. In such situations, track record counts as nothing and is akin to trying to look backwards while attempting to walk forwards. Thus, the informed investor must consider not only a track record indicating success, but also be prepared to ignore that record based on current trends.

How to Rent an Apartment with Your Bad Credit History

How to Rent an Apartment with Your Bad Credit HistoryThe rental office didn’t call you back and it looks like you won’t be getting that apartment. Is it your credit score? It wouldn’t be the first time bad credit parked its fat butt on top of an aspiring tenants dreams. The tricks that follow won’t guarantee you your next apartment, but they’ll get you back in the race.

Increase The Security Deposit

People like free things—this is the only absolute truth in the universe. And fortunately for you and me, landlords are people (even if they don’t always act like them). One sure-fire way to make them double-take is to offer them free stuff.

While you don’t want to increase the monthly rent, you do have another card up your sleeve that you can play: you can increase the size of the security deposit. Yes, you’ll pay more now, but when you leave, you’ll get more back. The landlord will feel more secure knowing that if you don’t pay for some reason, they aren’t completely out of luck. If you offer and extra month’s rent in the form of the deposit, that’s one less month they have to worry about if you don’t pay your bills.

Find A Guarantor

At the end of the day, the landlord just wants to be guaranteed his money. The best way to do that is to bring in a fall-guy. A guarantor (or co-signer) is exactly what it sounds like. If you’re unable to pay rent, your landlord goes to your guarantor and requests payment. Simple, right?

Kind of, but this isn’t a decision to take lightly. If your guarantor is unable to pay then you’ll both likely end up in court. So it’s important to consider who your guarantor will be; will your relationship hold strong in the event that you both wind up in court?

Sublet From Your Friend

What is subletting? Simply put it means that your friend has leased an apartment in the same way that you’re attempting to. Then she subleases the apartment to a third party (in this case: you). It is extremely important to know whether or not the landlord has approved this sublease—if they haven’t, it’s very illegal. Always call and make sure with the landlord before signing.

The benefit to subletting is not only the flexibility of the lease itself, but that not every landlord will do background, and credit checks on you.

Explain And Show Progress

Like I said before, landlords are people and are therefore governed by emotions. And if you’re lucky, they may have been blessed with reason too.

A great way to have your landlord look past your bad credit is to explain your situation, and, if you can, show progress you’ve made toward mending it. Bring credit statements along with you, and show them that you’ve been steadily improving your score and haven’t missed a payment in a year or two. We’ve all been through hard times—even your landlord—and showing that you’ve been able to improve shows that you’re now responsible.

At the end of the day, there isn’t a quick fix. What I’ve found though, is that coupling these tricks together makes for a great impression. You won’t always find a landlord who takes your side, but these tips give you a great chance of snagging the apartment you would have otherwise been rejected from.

Get a $150 Referral Bonus When You Become an Uber Driver

If you’re considering becoming an Uber driver, NOW is the time!Become an Uber Driver

The referral bonus for new Uber drivers has traditionally be lower, at $50, but for a limited time, Uber has increased the new driver referral bonus to $150! It’s very easy to get started, and there are only a few steps you need to take to get paid your bonus:

  • Sign up here
  • Upload all required documents to their partner dashboard right away
  • Get vehicle inspected
  • Complete 20 trips (this takes about 3 hours of Uber driving)

When I signed up, I got paid $50 after just the first Saturday night of driving for Uber. It couldn’t be easier to earn the bonus, so sign up now before they drop the bonus back down!

The whole process is pretty quick, and if you have any questions about the approval process, leave them below. I’m happy to answer them for you!

So what are you waiting for? Sign up to become an Uber driver here and get your $150 bonus now!

Uber Sign Up Bonus

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